BRENT $96.15 +3.2% WTI $87.80 +1.8% GOLD $5,106 -0.5% DXY $99.56 +0.6% BTC $68,623 +3.5% ETH $3,195 +2.1% SPY $521 -1.5% VIX $28.4 +18%
WAR PREMIUM LONG: Gold $5.1K-$5.8K · Oil $93-$115 · BTC $67.9K-$75K (contrarian) SHORT: Alts · EM equities FEAR 8
TRIGGERS: Oil >$100 = add war tradesBTC <$65K = stop longsDXY <92 = YCC trade10Y >5% = bond market brokenGold >$5.5K = nuclear priced inCeasefire = close ALL war positions
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Regime
WAR RISK-OFF
Net Exposure
HEDGED LONG
Highest Conviction
GOLD 85%
Latest Change
+BTC LONG
Positions
3L · 4S · 1H
⚡ DEPLOY
PORTFOLIO

⚡ Positions Live Trade Memos

🎯 Scenarios Probability-Weighted

⚡ SITREP
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High Alert
Elevated
Monitoring
Infrastructure
Global Threat Index Curated + Live
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⚔️ Conflict
🛢️ Energy
💰 Financial
🌐 Trade
↑ +19 today 73 → 92
Oil chokepoint risk — Hormuz 90% closed, 10% transit
Leadership transition — Supreme Leader killed, IRGC autonomous
VIX elevated — April 2025 highs, backwardation
▽ No confirmed regional spillover (yet)
Would drop to 45-55 on ceasefire + strait reopening
🧠 ARTHUR'S REASONING
📋 WHAT CHANGED
🔮 EDGE SIGNALS Curated + Live
BTC ETF Tracker
Net Flow
Total Vol
PREDICTION DIVERGENCE Arthur vs Market
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⚡ Deploy Arthur's Portfolio
Confidence-weighted allocation across 5 executable positions
Total Portfolio Size
USDC allocated across all positions
$ USDC
Orders execute on Arthur DEX via Orderly Network · Non-custodial · You sign every trade